Trump – Why no one knew?

Electoral Votes Estimates
This electoral map reflects a general expectation before the  election.  Clinton appeared to have 268 votes for sure and needed to win only 4 votes from NH or any other “gray” state.

One day before the election New York Times estimated the probability on Clinton winning at 81%.   CNN estimates that she has 268 electoral votes in the bag, and she only needs to win any of the swing states to make it over 270 electoral votes.

First shock waves came around 8:30 – 9 PM on Tuesday, November 8, 2016. Unexpectedly Trump was leading in Florida, North Carolina, Ohio.  Stock Market futures started to tumble down sensing a contentions transition of power.  By 11:30PM all chances of winning seemed lost for Clinton.  And around 1:36AM on Wednesday, November 9 Associated Press calls Pennsylvania for Trump and he gets over 270 electoral votes. winner of the election was called by the networks – Donald Trump.

Let’s try to list possible reasons, why actual election results differed from estimates and expectations.

(1) Republican candidate seemed so scandalous in typical TV coverage, that it was hard to acknowledge even to self that “I” personally would vote for him. That might be one reason that pols did not tell all the truth.

Electoral Votes Final
Here is a final map after MI completed their count in early  December.  Clinton did won NH (4) and Nevada (6), but narrowly  lost FL (29), PA (20), MI (16), NC (15) and WI (10).

(2) Another reason could be that portion of Trump supporters stopped answering their mobile phones, making polls skewed in Clinton’s favor.

(3) For the first time in history TV and radio stopped being the only source for news.  Despite all the regular “chants and prophesies” on major news channels, people were surrounding themselves with comfortable news from their circle of friends on Facebook and Tweeter.
(“Four-in-ten Americans get news online”  –

(4) Fake and deceptive news and figures  (on both sides) fell on fertile soil.  Accusations were so outrages and so readily accepted by proponents, that dialog between sides was either impossible or it would  instantly turn into a shouting match.  And we saw those shouting “debates” shortly after the elections both on the streets and we saw it during TV interviews.

(5) Definitely big role played an overwhelming confidence on Clinton side.  That confidence made a trip to a voting station irrelevant. Many stayed home because victory was guaranteed by the media.

(6) Let’s give credit to innovative campaign tactics employed by Trump team.  It appears that they’ve approached  the task of getting attention exactly like a marketing effort of getting customer attention and notice.  It appears that they ran targeted focused campaign based on State, County, hour of the day and the content of the show.

Trump rallies draws crowds

(7) Personality of Donald Trump. He was so universally bad for some that they stopped listening.  So, he ignored the shores. He was so obviously good for others that no further convincing was required.  So he was strong in his base.  And he found the message for those still listening.

(8) Direct tweets from Trump himself could have helped to win additional votes.  I only discovered these after the election, but when you read these now, you feel a direct connection to the office of future President.

And now the future begins.  As it always does.  In the next article, let’s look how new president  would have to approach contradictions between US domestic and foreign policies..

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